A recent poll indicates that if elections were held today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc would secure 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Despite these gains, Netanyahu’s bloc would still fall short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government, according to the survey results released on Thursday.
The poll projects the main Zionist opposition bloc would slightly edge out Netanyahu’s bloc by winning 55 seats. Neither bloc would command a parliamentary majority, highlighting the potential significance of two Arab-majority parties, which are predicted to capture a combined total of 14 seats, in any coalition-building efforts.
As political dynamics unfold, former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has emerged as a leading force, with the poll predicting it will become the largest party in the Knesset, securing 24 seats. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is forecasted to win 14 seats, while Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats are expected to gain nine and eight seats, respectively.
Within Netanyahu’s political bloc, Likud is predicted to win 22 seats, making it the largest party in the bloc. Shas is expected to follow with 10 seats, United Torah Judaism with nine, Otzma Yehudit with seven, and Religious Zionism with four.
Parties falling below the electoral threshold include Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party, which received 3% support, shy of the 3.25% needed to enter the Knesset. HaMiluimnikim and Blue and White also fell short of this threshold.
Amidst the potential for an electoral stalemate, public opinion appears divided on the best course of action. Approximately 31.4% of respondents favor holding another election if a deadlock occurs, 29.6% support forming a unity government, and 27% back a minority government. Among Netanyahu’s supporters, a plurality of 45.02% prefer a unity government, whereas those opposed to him predominantly favor a minority government, with 39.79% expressing this preference.
The poll, which surveyed 500 respondents and carries a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, underscores the ongoing uncertainty in Israeli politics as the country approaches the October 27 election date.